Water Scarcity and Declining Trend in Yield in Foodgrains Production of India

Abstract

India has achieved remarkable success in foodgrains production in the last four decades largely banking on tube-well irrigation. But the country is experiencing a declining trend in the growth rate in yield in recent years. This paper demonstrates theoretically how excess depletion and under utilization of ground water make water scarcity a serious constraint to future growth in agriculture. Using time series econometric analysis based on Indian data it establishes that there is meaningful long-run relationship between tube-well irrigation, fertilizer use and productivity growth in agriculture and it explains the declining trend in the growth rate in yield in terms of declining growth rate in tube-well irrigation.